What you need
- Altseason Follows Bitcoin — BTC makes new highs first, then money flows to alts
- Watch BTC Dominance — Altseason starts when dominance drops below 50% and trends down
- Rotation Order Exists — Large caps → Mid caps → Narratives → Memes → Crash
- ETH/BTC is Your Guide — Rising ETH/BTC signals altseason; falling means run
- Take Profits in Stages — Don't wait for the perfect top; sell into strength
- Euphoria = Exit — When everyone is making money, the end is near
What is Altcoin Season?
Altcoin season (or "altseason") is a period when altcoins dramatically outperform Bitcoin. During these phases, altcoins can rise 10x, 50x, even 100x or more in weeks to months.
Why Does Altseason Happen?
- Profit Rotation: Bitcoin holders take profits and rotate into higher-risk, higher-reward alts
- FOMO Cascade: Retail investors see alts pumping and chase gains
- Narrative Cycles: New narratives (DeFi, NFTs, AI) attract fresh capital
- Market Euphoria: Risk appetite increases as confidence builds
"In bull markets, the rising tide lifts all boats. In altseason, the boats become rockets. But rockets can also explode."
— Anonymous Crypto Trader
Historical Altseasons
| Period | BTC Peak | Altseason Duration | Top Performers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-2018 | Dec 2017 | ~3 months | XRP (36,000%), NEO, TRX |
| 2020-2021 | Nov 2021 | ~6 months | SOL (12,000%), SHIB, AVAX |
| 2024-2025 | Q1 2025 | TBD | TBD |
Contrarian Take
Everyone's worried about Meta's metaverse spending. They should be. But what they miss is that Meta's AI advertising engine is so far ahead, they can burn $10B yearly on moonshots and still dominate.
How to Time Altcoin Season
The BTC Dominance Indicator
Bitcoin Dominance = Bitcoin's market cap ÷ Total crypto market cap. It's the #1 indicator for altseason.
BTC Dominance Zones
ETH/BTC Ratio
ETH is the "gateway drug" to altcoins. When ETH outperforms BTC, altseason is likely:
- Rising ETH/BTC → Risk-on, altcoins likely to pump
- Falling ETH/BTC → Risk-off, capital fleeing to BTC safety
- ETH/BTC at cycle lows → Often best time to accumulate alts
Other Timing Signals
- Fear & Greed Index: Sustained 80+ readings indicate euphoria phase
- Google Trends: "Altcoin" searches rising = retail entering
- Social Volume: CT (Crypto Twitter) engagement exploding
- Funding Rates: Perpetual funding highly positive = overleveraged
The Altcoin Rotation (Order of Pumps)
Money doesn't flow into all alts equally. There's a predictable rotation:
Bitcoin Accumulation
Duration: 6-12 monthsSmart money accumulates BTC. Dominance rises. Alts bleed. This is the best time to accumulate alts at low prices, but it feels terrible.
Bitcoin Breakout
Duration: 1-3 monthsBTC breaks all-time highs. Headlines everywhere. Dominance peaks. Alts lag but start showing strength. This is the "positioning" phase.
Large Cap Rally
Duration: 1-2 monthsETH, SOL, BNB start outperforming BTC. Dominance drops. This confirms altseason is beginning. Many retail investors enter here.
Full Altseason
Duration: 2-4 months (PEAK)Everything pumps. Mid caps 5x, small caps 10-50x. New coins launch daily. This is where most gains are made — and where greed peaks.
Distribution & Crash
Duration: Sudden (days to weeks)Smart money exits. Memecoins pump 100% in a day (final blowoff). Then crash. Alts drop 80-95% from highs. Most retail gets trapped here.
What to Buy During Altseason
Portfolio Allocation Strategy
ETH, SOL, BNB
L2s, DeFi
AI, RWA, Gaming
Low caps, memes
2026 Narrative Sectors to Watch
AI + Crypto
AI agents, decentralized compute, data markets. Still early innings.
RWA (Real World Assets)
Tokenized treasuries, real estate, commodities. Institutional adoption.
Layer 2 Tokens
Arbitrum, Optimism, zkSync, Base ecosystem tokens.
Gaming / Metaverse
Quality games launching, not just "play-to-earn" ponzis.
When to Take Profits (Exit Strategy)
The hardest part of altseason isn't buying — it's selling. Greed kills more portfolios than fear.
Classic Top Signals
The Profit-Taking Ladder
Don't try to time the exact top. Sell in stages:
Sell 25% — Recover Initial
At 2x, sell 25%. Now you're playing with "house money."
Sell 25% — Lock Profit
At 3x, sell another 25%. You've now guaranteed a profit.
Sell 25% — Major Win
At 5x, sell another 25%. Convert to stables or BTC.
Sell Remaining — Moon Bag
Keep 5-10% as "moon bag." Sell rest. Life-changing gains.
The Golden Rule
It's better to sell "too early" at 5x and miss more upside than to hold for 10x and ride it back down to -50%. Profits aren't real until you sell.
Altseason Mistakes That Destroy Portfolios
- Chasing After the Pump: Buying after 10x is how you become exit liquidity.
- No Profit-Taking Plan: "I'll sell at $X" never works without discipline.
- Over-Concentration: Going 100% into one coin = gambling, not investing.
- Ignoring BTC Dominance: The single most important indicator, often ignored.
- Leverage in Euphoria: Using leverage when "it can't go down" = liquidation.
- Not Converting to Stables: Rotating profits to stables locks gains. Paper gains evaporate.
- Believing "This Time Is Different": Every cycle feels different. Every cycle ends similarly.
Your 2026 Altseason Playbook
The Complete Checklist
- Accumulate during BTC dominance highs (60%+) — Buy alts when everyone hates them
- Watch for BTC new ATH + dominance drop — The signal altseason is starting
- Position in large caps first, then rotate — ETH/SOL → Mid caps → Narratives
- Set profit targets before euphoria — Write them down, follow them
- Take profits in stages — 25% at 2x, 25% at 3x, 25% at 5x
- Convert to stables when dominance bottoms — Protect gains in USDC/USDT
- Keep a moon bag (5-10%) — Just in case it goes to the moon
- Don't reinvest stables during crash — Wait for dust to settle
Altseason is the opportunity of a crypto cycle — but it's also the graveyard of most retail portfolios. The difference between 10x gains and 90% losses is having a plan and sticking to it.
The goal isn't to sell at the exact top. The goal is to sell in profit and keep it.