Tokenomics Analysis: Find the Winners

90% of crypto projects fail because of bad tokenomics. Here's the framework VCs use to separate potential winners from inevitable losers

📊 Framework
Actionable
📅 Updated Feb 8, 2026

Main points

  • Fully Diluted Valuation — Always check FDV, not just market cap. It shows true dilution
  • Vesting Schedules — Large unlock events create massive selling pressure
  • Inflation Rate — High emission = constant sell pressure on token
  • Token Utility — Demand drivers matter more than supply mechanics
  • Distribution — Avoid >20% to team/insiders, especially with short vesting
  • Burn Mechanics — Real burns reduce supply; fake burns just move tokens
01

What is Tokenomics?

Tokenomics is the economic design of a cryptocurrency. It determines:

  • How tokens are created — Mining, staking rewards, or pre-mint
  • How tokens are distributed — Team, investors, community, treasury
  • What creates demand — Utility, staking, governance, fees
  • What controls supply — Inflation rate, burns, max supply

"Price is just supply and demand. Tokenomics determines both. Master tokenomics, master crypto investing."

— DeFi Researcher

Contrarian Take

Everyone's worried about Meta's metaverse spending. They should be. But what they miss is that Meta's AI advertising engine is so far ahead, they can burn $10B yearly on moonshots and still dominate.

02

Understanding Supply Metrics

Circulating Supply
35%
↑ Currently tradeable in the market
Total Supply
70%
↑ Includes locked/vested tokens
Max Supply
100%
↑ Maximum tokens that will ever exist (if capped)
📈
Market Cap
Price × Circulating Supply. What the market currently values.
Formula Price × Circ Supply
Use for Current valuation
FDV (Fully Diluted)
Price × Max Supply. Shows potential dilution and true valuation.
Formula Price × Max Supply
MC/FDV > 50% ✓ Good
MC/FDV < 20% ⚠ Caution
🔄
Inflation Rate
Annual increase in token supply from emissions, staking rewards, etc.
< 5%/year ✓ Healthy
5-15%/year Moderate
> 15%/year ⚠ High
03

Token Distribution

How tokens are allocated reveals project priorities and potential sell pressure:

100%
Total Supply
  • Team & Advisors 20%
  • Community/Airdrop 20%
  • Private Sale Investors 20%
  • Ecosystem/Treasury 15%
  • Staking Rewards 10%
  • Public Sale 15%

Distribution Guidelines

👥
Team Allocation
10-15% ✓ Healthy
15-25% Acceptable
> 25% ⚠ Red Flag
🏦
VC/Investor Allocation
< 20% ✓ Healthy
20-30% Check vesting
> 30% ⚠ Heavy dumps likely
🌍
Community Allocation
> 40% ✓ Fair launch
20-40% ⚡ Average
< 20% ⚠ Insider-heavy
04

Vesting Schedules & Unlocks

Vesting schedules determine when locked tokens become available for sale. Large unlock events create massive sell pressure:

0
TGE
15%
6
6 Months
20%
12
1 Year (Cliff)
35%
24
2 Years
65%
48
4 Years
100%

Vesting Best Practices

  • Cliff Period — 6-12 months where no tokens unlock. Good for alignment
  • Linear Vesting — Monthly unlocks are better than large cliffs
  • Total Duration — 3-4 year vesting is standard for team/VCs
  • TGE Unlock — Less than 20% at Token Generation Event is healthy

Track Unlock Events

Use Token Terminal, Messari, or Dune Analytics to track upcoming unlocks. Major unlocks often precede price drops.

05

Token Utility: Demand Drivers

Supply mechanics are only half the equation. Token utility creates demand:

Gas/Transaction Fees

Token required to use the network. Every transaction = token demand. (ETH, SOL, AVAX)

Governance Rights

Vote on protocol changes, treasury spending, fee adjustments. (UNI, AAVE, MKR)

Staking Rewards

Stake to earn yield, secure network, or boost returns. Creates lock-up demand. (CRV, GMX)

Fee Sharing

Holders receive portion of protocol revenue. Real yield creates sustainable demand.

Burn Mechanisms

Fees burned = reduced supply. EIP-1559 burns ETH with every transaction.

Collateral/Insurance

Token used as collateral for borrowing or insurance. Creates structural demand.

06

Red Flags & Green Flags

🚩 Red Flags - Avoid These

🚩
Low Circulating / Total Supply Ratio
If only 10-15% is circulating, 85% is waiting to be dumped on you. Massive dilution incoming.
🚩
Unlimited Minting Capability
If team can mint unlimited tokens, they can dilute you to zero. Check smart contract permissions.
🚩
Short or No Vesting for Team
If team tokens unlock immediately or within months, expect dumps. Good teams accept 3-4 year vesting.
🚩
Concentrated Whale Holdings
If top 10 wallets hold >50% of supply, one sale crashes price. Check token distribution on-chain.

✅ Green Flags - Look for These

Real Revenue & Fee Sharing
Protocol generates actual revenue that flows to token holders. Real yield = sustainable demand.
Long Vesting with Cliff
12-month cliff + 4-year vesting shows team is committed for long-term. Aligned incentives.
High Circulating/FDV Ratio
If >50% is already circulating, less dilution ahead. Bitcoin is 100% circulating (no dilution).
Burn Mechanisms with Real Usage
Token burns tied to actual protocol usage reduce supply over time. Deflationary when usage grows.
07

Your Tokenomics Checklist

Before You Invest
What's the MC/FDV ratio? (>40% preferred)
What's the annual inflation rate?
How much does team/VCs hold?
What's the vesting schedule?
When is the next major unlock?
What creates demand for the token?
Is there real revenue/fee sharing?
Are there burn mechanisms?
How concentrated is holder distribution?
Can team mint unlimited tokens?

Good tokenomics don't guarantee success. But bad tokenomics almost guarantee failure.

BroBillionaire Editorial Team

We've analyzed hundreds of token launches. The patterns are clear. Good tokenomics = potential. Bad tokenomics = exit liquidity.

Continue Your Research