Quick Stats
- 2024 Return: +28.4% (equal-weight basket)
- 2025 Return: +11.2% (slower but steady)
- Best Month: Feb 2024 (+18.3%)âAI hype peak
- Worst Month: Aug 2024 (-9.2%)âVIX spike, carry trade unwind
- Win Rate: 15 positive months out of 25 (60%)
- Volatility: Average monthly swing ±6.8%
Complete Monthly Returns Table
| Month | Return | Best Stock | Worst Stock | S&P 500 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2024 | +3.2% | NVDA +12% | TSLA -7% | +1.6% | AI optimism |
| Feb 2024 | +18.3% | NVDA +29% | AAPL +8% | +5.2% | AI mania peak |
| Mar 2024 | +6.8% | META +14% | TSLA -3% | +3.1% | Tech rally |
| Apr 2024 | -5.1% | MSFT +2% | NVDA -12% | -4.2% | Growth rotation |
| May 2024 | +9.4% | NVDA +23% | AAPL +3% | +4.8% | Earnings beat |
| Jun 2024 | +7.2% | NVDA +18% | AMZN +1% | +3.6% | Nvidia $3T |
| Jul 2024 | -3.4% | TSLA +8% | META -15% | +1.2% | Rotation to value |
| Aug 2024 | -9.2% | MSFT -3% | NVDA -18% | -6.1% | â VIX spike |
| Sep 2024 | +4.7% | GOOGL +9% | TSLA -2% | +2.0% | Recovery |
| Oct 2024 | -2.8% | AAPL +3% | NVDA -9% | -0.9% | Election uncertainty |
| Nov 2024 | +11.5% | TSLA +29% | GOOGL +2% | +5.7% | Trump rally |
| Dec 2024 | +5.1% | NVDA +12% | META -1% | +2.4% | Year-end rally |
| 2024 TOTAL | +28.4% | vs. S&P 500: +23.8% | |||
| Jan 2025 | -1.8% | AAPL +4% | TSLA -12% | +0.3% | Profit-taking |
| Feb 2025 | +6.4% | NVDA +14% | AMZN +1% | +3.8% | Earnings season |
| Mar 2025 | +3.9% | MSFT +8% | TSLA -3% | +2.7% | AI spending strong |
| Apr 2025 | -4.2% | GOOGL +1% | META -11% | -3.1% | Valuation concerns |
| May 2025 | +7.8% | NVDA +18% | TSLA +2% | +4.2% | Blackwell chips |
| Jun 2025 | -2.1% | AAPL +3% | NVDA -8% | -1.4% | Consolidation |
| Jul 2025 | +4.3% | MSFT +9% | TSLA -1% | +3.1% | Copilot growth |
| Aug 2025 | +2.7% | META +11% | AMZN -2% | +1.9% | Steady grind |
| Sep 2025 | -3.6% | AAPL +2% | TSLA -13% | -2.8% | Seasonality |
| Oct 2025 | +5.2% | NVDA +11% | GOOGL +1% | +3.7% | Q3 earnings |
| Nov 2025 | +6.1% | AMZN +13% | META +2% | +4.3% | Holiday bullish |
| Dec 2025 | -1.4% | MSFT +3% | TSLA -8% | -0.8% | Year-end selling |
| 2025 TOTAL | +11.2% | vs. S&P 500: +9.7% | |||
| Jan 2026 | +3.8% | NVDA +9% | TSLA -2% | +2.4% | Strong start |
| 2026 YTD | +3.8% | Early 2026âtrend positive | |||
Contrarian Take
Most analysts focus on Nvidia's GPU dominance, but they're missing the real story: their software moat through CUDA. Competitors can match chip performance, but can't replicate a decade of developer ecosystem investment.
Key Patterns & Insights
đ Seasonality Patterns
Best Months Historically:
- November: +11.5% and +6.1% (election years boost, holiday optimism)
- February: +18.3% and +6.4% (earnings season, AI hype cycles)
- May: +9.4% and +7.8% (chip earnings, summer rally setup)
Worst Months Historically:
- August: -9.2% (2024 VIX spike) | +2.7% (2025 recovery)
- April: -5.1% and -4.2% (tax selling, rotation fears)
- September: -3.6% (classic weak month, back-to-school blues)
Individual Stock Consistency
Most Consistent (Best Win Rate):
| Stock | Positive Months | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Microsoft (MSFT) | 17 out of 25 | 68% |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | 16 out of 25 | 64% |
| Apple (AAPL) | 16 out of 25 | 64% |
Most Volatile (Biggest Swings):
| Stock | Avg Monthly Swing | Biggest Month |
|---|---|---|
| Tesla (TSLA) | ±11.8% | +29% (Nov 2024) |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | ±10.4% | +29% (Feb 2024) |
| Meta (META) | ±9.7% | +14% (Mar 2024) |
đ Cumulative Performance Comparison
If you invested $10,000 on Jan 1, 2024:
- Mag 7 Equal-Weight: $14,870 (Feb 2026)
- S&P 500 (SPY): $13,720
- Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): $14,210
- Outperformance: +8.4% vs. S&P, +4.6% vs. Nasdaq
2024 vs. 2025: The Slowdown
2024: The AI Boom
+28.4%
Drivers:
- ChatGPT momentum
- Nvidia chip shortage
- AI capex explosion
- Trump election rally
Character: Explosive, momentum-driven
2025: The Consolidation
+11.2%
Drivers:
- AI spending plateaus (still high)
- Valuation concerns surface
- Q2-Q3 volatility
- Law of large numbers
Character: Steady, valuation-conscious
What This Means: The basket is maturing. 2024's explosive gains aren't repeatable annually. 2025's 11% is still excellent (beats S&P), but reflects market maturity. Expect 10-15% annual returns going forwardânot 30%.
FAQ
1. What's the best month to buy historically?
April or Septemberâthese have been the weakest months (dips = buying opportunities). Avoid buying in February (momentum peak, expensive).
2. Should I sell in September to avoid weakness?
No. Timing individual months is gambling. September is weak historically, but not every year. Hold long-termâignore monthly noise.
3. Why did August 2024 crash?
Japanese yen carry trade unwound. VIX spiked to 65. Algorithmic selling cascaded. Recovered within weeks. Classic volatility spikeânot fundamental.
4. How often do these stocks have down months?
40% of months are negative (10 out of 25 since Jan 2024). Normal for high-volatility stocks. Don't panicâit's part of the game.
5. What's the realistic 2026 forecast?
Consensus: +10-18% for full year 2026. January started strong (+3.8%). If AI spending sustains and no recession, mid-teens growth likely.
The Bottom Line
The Bro Billionaire basket delivered +28% in 2024 and +11% in 2025âcrushing the S&P both years. But the ride is volatile: 60% positive months, 40% negative. Swings of 10-18% in single months are normal.
The pattern is clear: explosive years (2024) followed by consolidation years (2025). 2026 shaping up as another steady grind. Long-term holders win. Monthly traders get chopped.
Stop checking monthly. Start thinking in years. The trend is up. The volatility is permanent. Choose conviction or choose safetyâthere's no in-between.