☠️ WARNING: These Contracts Have Body Counts
- Natural gas futures have blown up more traders than any other contract
- Crude oil went NEGATIVE in April 2020 — something "impossible" happened
- Coffee futures once moved 30% in a week on frost news
- VIX futures can double overnight when markets crash
- These are not for beginners — but you should understand them
The Hall of Fame: Ranked by Violence
Not all futures are created equal. Some are gentle giants. Others are chainsaws with hair triggers.
Here's the definitive ranking of the world's most volatile futures contracts:
Let's meet these killers one by one.
🔥 Natural Gas: The Undisputed Champion of Chaos
If futures contracts were boxers, natural gas would be Mike Tyson in his prime — fast, brutal, and completely unpredictable.
Why is natural gas so insane?
Storage-Dependent
You can't really store natural gas easily. What you produce, you must use. No buffer = wild swings.
Weather Obsessed
Hot summer = AC demand. Cold winter = heating demand. Every weather forecast moves the market.
Local Markets
Unlike oil, gas is hard to ship. US prices can crash while European prices spike. Pure chaos.
Widow Maker Nickname
Traders call the March-April spread the "widow maker" because it's killed so many accounts.
The OptionSellers.com Apocalypse
Date: November 2018
Firm: OptionSellers.com, managed $150 million
Strategy: Selling naked calls on natural gas
What Happened: Nat gas spiked 20% in one day on cold weather forecast
Result: Entire fund wiped out. 290 clients lost everything. Some owed money to brokers.
The Crying Video: Manager posted tearful apology video on YouTube that went viral.
"Natural gas is not a market you trade. It's a market that trades you. The moment you think you understand it, you're about to be destroyed."
— Energy Trading Desk Head, Major Bank
😱 VIX Futures: Fear Itself as a Tradeable Asset
Imagine if you could trade human emotion. VIX futures are exactly that.
The VIX is the "fear index" — it measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. VIX futures let you bet on how scared the market will be.
Normal VIX: 12-18
Markets calm. Everyone's happy. VIX futures slowly decay (contango).
Elevated VIX: 20-30
Some fear in the market. Options getting expensive. Traders getting nervous.
Panic VIX: 30-50+
Markets crashing. VIX can spike 50-100% in a day. Short sellers get obliterated.
VIX 80+ (March 2020)
The world is ending. VIX hit 82 during COVID crash. Multiple funds blew up.
XIV: The ETN That Went to Zero
Date: February 5, 2018 — "Volmageddon"
What: XIV was an inverse VIX product — went up when fear went down
The Trade: Thousands of retail traders were short VIX (long XIV)
VIX Move: Spiked from 17 to 37 (+115%) in one afternoon
Result: XIV lost 96% of its value in ONE DAY. Credit Suisse terminated the product.
Losses: $2+ billion in retail money vanished overnight
The VIX doesn't care about your charts. Fear is not technical. One tweet from a president, one bomb somewhere, one pandemic — and VIX doubles overnight.
☕ Coffee: The Caffeinated Killer
Coffee seems innocent. You drink it every morning. How volatile can it be?
Answer: Extremely.
Coffee has some unique characteristics that make it a beast:
- Concentrated Production: Brazil + Vietnam = 60% of world supply. One frost, one drought = mayhem.
- Long Crop Cycle: Coffee trees take 3-4 years to produce. Can't quickly replace lost production.
- Weather Extremes: Frost in Brazil (July-August) can wipe out entire crops overnight.
- Currency Exposure: Brazilian Real weakness = cheaper exports = lower prices. Real strength = price spikes.
July 2021 Frost
Coffee jumped from $1.50 to $2.50 (+67%) in 6 weeks after Brazil frost. Options went 20-50x.
2019 Collapse
Coffee crashed to $0.86/lb — lowest in 13 years. Good weather + oversupply. Bulls destroyed.
"Coffee is the only commodity where traders literally pray for bad weather. We need disasters to make money. It sounds terrible, but that's the game."
— Soft Commodities Trader, London
🛢️ Crude Oil: The Day It Went Negative
April 20, 2020. A date that will live in trading infamy.
WTI Crude Oil futures didn't just crash. They went NEGATIVE. Sellers were PAYING buyers to take oil off their hands.
Final price: -$37.63 per barrel.
Let that sink in. A commodity that fuels the world was worth less than nothing.
March 2020
COVID lockdowns kill oil demand. OPEC+ meeting collapses. Saudi Arabia floods market.
Early April 2020
Oil storage filling up globally. Cushing, Oklahoma (delivery point) nearly full.
April 20, 2020
May futures expiring. No one wants delivery. Price collapses to -$37.63.
April 21, 2020
New month (June) contract opens at +$20. Like nothing happened. The chaos was in the roll.
Bank of China's $1 Billion Nightmare
Product: "Crude Treasure" — retail oil investment product
Customers: 60,000+ Chinese retail investors
The Problem: Bank didn't roll futures before expiry
Settlement Price: -$37.63 per barrel
Result: Investors not only lost everything — they OWED money. $1+ billion in losses.
Aftermath: Lawsuits, regulatory investigations, executives fired.
The impossible happened. Negative prices broke trading systems worldwide. Brokers couldn't process the trades. The lesson: Never assume anything has a floor.
🥈 Silver: Gold's Psychotic Cousin
We've covered silver extensively in another article, but here's the volatility summary:
2-3x Gold's Volatility
When gold moves 1%, silver moves 2-3%. Leverage on leverage.
Retail Favorite
Cheaper than gold, more "accessible." Every retail squeeze targets silver.
Industrial + Precious
Part industrial metal, part store of value. Schizophrenic identity = wild moves.
Small Market
Entire silver market ~$1.5 trillion. Apple alone is worth $3 trillion. Easy to move.
🏆 Honorable Mentions: Other Widow-Makers
⚔️ The Survival Guide for Volatile Futures
So you want to trade these beasts? Here are the rules that might keep you alive:
Rule 1: Size Down
Trade 1/3 of what you think you should. These contracts will humble you.
Rule 2: Never Sell Naked
Selling naked options on volatile futures = how funds blow up. Just don't.
Rule 3: Watch Expiry
Roll your positions early. Never get caught in expiry week. Ever.
Rule 4: No Overnight
Unless you can afford the gap. 3 AM surprises are common.
"The graveyard of commodity traders is full of people who were 'right' but couldn't survive being early. Volatility is not your friend — it's a force of nature that doesn't care about your analysis."
— 30-year commodity veteran
The Bottom Line
These contracts aren't evil. They're just intense. Used correctly, with proper sizing and risk management, they can be incredible opportunities.
Used recklessly, they're financial weapons of mass destruction.
The Volatility Hall of Fame
- Natural Gas: The undisputed king of chaos. Weather-dependent widow-maker.
- VIX Futures: Trade fear itself. Can double overnight when panic hits.
- Coffee: One frost in Brazil can create 10x option returns.
- Crude Oil: Went negative. Enough said.
- Silver: Gold's psychotic cousin. 2-3x the volatility.
Respect the volatility. Size appropriately. And never, ever think you've "figured it out."
Because the moment you do, the market will remind you who's really in charge.