Trade Parameters
Enter your trading setup details
Analysis
Win Rate vs Expectancy
100 Trades Projection
Scenario Analysis - 100 Trades
See how different win rates affect your profitability
| Win Rate | Winning Trades | Losing Trades | Total Profit | Total Loss | Net P&L | Expectancy/Trade |
|---|
Understanding Risk-Reward Ratio
The Risk-Reward Ratio (R:R) is the cornerstone of profitable trading. It tells you how much profit you stand to gain for every rupee you risk. Combined with your win rate, it determines your trading edge and long-term profitability.
What is Risk-Reward Ratio?
Risk-Reward Ratio compares the potential loss (risk) to potential profit (reward) on a trade.
R:R Ratio = (Target - Entry) / (Entry - Stop Loss)Example: Entry ₹1000, Stop Loss ₹950, Target ₹1100
R:R = (1100-1000) / (1000-950) = 100/50 = 2:1
Meaning: For every ₹1 risked, you can gain ₹2
Breakeven Win Rate
This is the minimum win rate you need to just break even (not lose money) with your current R:R ratio.
Breakeven Win Rate = 100 / (R:R Ratio + 1)For 1:2 R:R: Breakeven = 100 / (2+1) = 33.33%
For 1:1 R:R: Breakeven = 50%
For 2:1 R:R: Breakeven = 66.67%
Key Insight: Higher R:R means you need lower win rate to be profitable! With 1:3 R:R, you only need 25% win rate to break even.
Trading Expectancy
Expectancy tells you the average amount you can expect to win or lose per trade over many trades. Positive expectancy = profitable system.
Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) - (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)Example: 50% win rate, Avg win ₹100, Avg loss ₹50
Expectancy = (0.5 × 100) - (0.5 × 50) = ₹25 per trade
Over 100 trades: 100 × ₹25 = ₹2,500 profit expected
Profit Factor
Ratio of gross profit to gross loss. Must be above 1.0 to be profitable.
Profit Factor = Gross Profit / Gross Loss1.0 = Break even
1.5 = Good
2.0+ = Excellent
Below 1.0 = Losing money
The Magic of R:R Ratio
Example 1: Professional Trader
Entry: ₹1000 | Stop: ₹980 | Target: ₹1060
Risk: ₹20 | Reward: ₹60 | R:R = 1:3
Even with 40% win rate, they make money!
10 trades: 4 wins (₹240) vs 6 losses (₹120) = ₹120 profit
Example 2: Amateur Trader
Entry: ₹1000 | Stop: ₹940 | Target: ₹1020
Risk: ₹60 | Reward: ₹20 | R:R = 1:0.33
Even with 60% win rate, they lose money!
10 trades: 6 wins (₹120) vs 4 losses (₹240) = -₹120 loss
Ideal R:R Ratios by Trading Style
- Scalping (seconds to minutes): 1:1 to 1:1.5 - Need 55-60% win rate
- Day Trading: 1:2 to 1:3 - Need 35-40% win rate
- Swing Trading (days to weeks): 1:3 to 1:5 - Need 25-30% win rate
- Position Trading (months): 1:5+ - Can work with 20% win rate
Common R:R Mistakes
- Moving Stop Loss After Entry: Destroys your planned R:R ratio. Stick to your plan!
- Taking Profit Too Early: Ruins your R:R. If you planned 1:3, don't exit at 1:1.5
- Ignoring Win Rate: 1:10 R:R sounds great, but if you only win 5% of time, you'll lose money
- Unrealistic Targets: Setting 1:10 R:R when market moves only 2% daily
- No Stop Loss: Unlimited risk = Eventual account blow-up
- Random R:R: Each trade needs proper R:R based on technical levels, not arbitrary numbers
How to Improve Your R:R
- Enter Near Support/Resistance: Tight stop loss = Better R:R
- Use Limit Orders: Get better entry price = Improved R:R
- Scale In: Add to winning positions to improve average R:R
- Trail Stop Loss: Lock profits while keeping reward potential
- Wait for Setup: Don't force trades with poor R:R
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis: Identify better entry/exit points
R:R in Different Market Conditions
Trending Market: Aim for 1:3 or better. Trends can run, so let profits run. Use trailing stops.
Range-Bound Market: Use 1:1.5 to 1:2. Take profits at resistance/support. Markets reverse quickly in ranges.
High Volatility: Wider stops needed. Maintain R:R by having proportionally wider targets.
Low Volatility: Tight stops possible. But targets also limited. Accept lower absolute gains.
Position Sizing with R:R
R:R ratio directly impacts position sizing. With better R:R, you can risk same 1-2% of capital but have much higher profit potential.
Position Size = (Account Risk %) / (Entry - Stop Loss)Account: ₹5,00,000 | Risk per trade: 2% = ₹10,000
Entry: ₹1000 | Stop: ₹980 | Risk per share: ₹20
Position Size = ₹10,000 / ₹20 = 500 shares
If target ₹1060 hit: Profit = 500 × ₹60 = ₹30,000 (6% gain)
Win Rate vs R:R: Finding Your Edge
You need EITHER high win rate OR high R:R. You rarely get both:
- High Win Rate + Low R:R: Mean reversion, range trading, selling options. Consistent small wins, occasional big loss.
- Low Win Rate + High R:R: Trend following, breakout trading, buying options. Many small losses, occasional huge win.
- Both High: Holy grail, very difficult. Usually results from exceptional skill or favorable market conditions.
- Both Low: Losing strategy, stop trading immediately!
Real Trading Statistics
Turtle Traders (Legendary Trend Followers):
Win Rate: ~40% | Average R:R: 1:10+
Result: Turned $1M into $100M+ over years
Typical Retail Trader:
Win Rate: ~60% | Average R:R: 1:0.5
Result: Slowly bleeds account despite winning more often!
Professional Day Trader:
Win Rate: 55% | Average R:R: 1:2
Result: Consistent monthly profits
The Psychology Factor
Most traders struggle with R:R because:
- Fear of Loss: Exit winners too early to "secure" profit
- Hope of Recovery: Hold losers too long, turning 1R loss into 3R+ loss
- Revenge Trading: Take low R:R trades to "win back" losses quickly
- Overconfidence: Taking massive risk for small reward (selling naked options)
Solution: Pre-define your R:R before entry. Use alerts/orders to execute mechanically. Remove emotion.
Action Plan for Success
- Track your last 50 trades - calculate actual R:R and win rate
- Calculate your current expectancy - is it positive?
- Identify why R:R was poor on losing streaks
- Set minimum R:R rule (e.g., never trade below 1:2)
- Use this calculator BEFORE every trade
- Journal each trade - did you follow your R:R plan?
- Review monthly - adjust strategy based on data
Pro Tips
- Aim for 1:2 minimum R:R on all trades
- With 1:2 R:R, you only need 35% win rate to profit
- Never adjust stop loss to "give trade more room" - plan it correctly initially
- If target is hit, consider scaling out and trailing remaining position
- Bad R:R trade = No trade. Wait for better setup
- Track your R:R over time - it's more important than win rate!
- One 1:10 winner can cover ten 1:1 losers
Final Thoughts
Risk-Reward ratio is mathematics, not opinion. You cannot argue with math. A trader with 40% win rate and 1:3 R:R will outperform a trader with 60% win rate and 1:0.5 R:R over time. Focus on your R:R, and profits will follow. Trade smart, not just frequently!