Sector Rotation Strategy
- Hot Sectors (2024-2026): AI Infrastructure (+248%), Cloud Computing (+134%)
- Cooling Sectors: Electric Vehicles (+87%), Social Media (+62%)
- Cold Sectors: Hardware/Devices (+38%)
- Rotation Signal: When sector outperforms S&P by 3x for 6+ months, it's hot
- Strategy: Overweight hot sectors, underweight cold sectors
Current Sector Heat Map
Historical Sector Rotation (2020-2026)
| Period | Hot Sector | Performance | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-2021 | Electric Vehicles | +487% | Biden climate agenda, EV adoption accelerating |
| 2022 | NONE (Bear Market) | -58% | Fed rate hikes, tech selloff, all sectors red |
| 2023-2024 | AI Infrastructure | +328% | ChatGPT launch, AI boom, data center buildout |
| 2025-2026 | Cloud Computing | +134% | Enterprise AI adoption, Azure/AWS dominating |
How to Use Sector Rotation
1. Identify Hot Sectors
Look for sectors outperforming S&P 500 by 3x+ over 3-6 months. Example: AI chips up 248% vs S&P up 18% = 13.8x outperformance = HOT.
2. Overweight Winners
If AI Infrastructure is hot, increase allocation to Nvidia. If Cloud is hot, overweight Microsoft/Amazon. Follow momentum.
3. Underweight Laggards
If Hardware is cold, reduce Apple exposure. If Social Media is cooling, trim Meta. Avoid anchoring to losers.
4. Rebalance Quarterly
Sector leadership changes. Review quarterly and rotate capital from cooling sectors to heating sectors.
Don't Chase Extremes
When a sector is up 300%+ in 6 months, it's often LATE to rotate in. Best entry is when a sector just starts heating (up 50-100% and accelerating). Sell when it peaks and starts cooling.
FAQ
Is sector rotation timing the market?
Partially. You're not predicting crashes, just following momentum. When AI is hot, you buy AI. When it cools, you rotate elsewhere. It's trend-following, not market timing.
What if I pick the wrong sector?
Diversify across 3-4 sectors. Don't go all-in on one. Example: 40% AI chips, 30% cloud, 20% EV, 10% social media. This smooths volatility.
How often should I rotate?
Quarterly review minimum. Some aggressive traders rotate monthly. Too frequent = taxes and whipsaws. Too infrequent = miss shifts.
Ride The Hot Sectors
AI Infrastructure and Cloud are on fire. EVs and Social Media are cooling. Hardware is cold. Rotate capital to momentum winners and cut laggards. Sectors rotate every 12-18 months—stay alert.
Track Momentum. Rotate Capital. Outperform.